The junta government is capturing one region after another in Myanmar, why are the rebels retreating?
The political and military landscape of Myanmar has undergone a dramatic change in recent times. Since the military coup of 2021, the country has been engulfed in a relentless civil war. The junta government, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, initially lost large swaths of territory to rebel groups. But in 2025, especially in October, the situation has reversed. Junta forces are capturing territory after territory. Rebels are retreating from strategically important cities such as Lashio, Kyaw Myint, Hsipaw, Naung Khy, Mogao, and Momeik. Why has this change occurred? Chinese pressure, the junta’s use of modern weapons, and the upcoming election strategy—these factors hide a complex picture of Myanmar’s future. In this article, we will discuss in detail the causes, effects, and possible outcomes of this turn of events.
A Brief History of the Myanmar Civil War: The Rise of the Rebellion and the Beginning of the Fall of the Junta
Myanmar's history is marked by military rule and ethnic conflict. On 1 February 2021, the junta overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup. This led to widespread protests across the country, which later escalated into an armed insurgency. Ethnic groups, such as the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TNLA, MNDAA and AA), and the People's Defence Force (PDF), united against the junta.
In October 2023, Operation 1027, the rebels' biggest success, began. They overran more than 180 military posts in northern Shan State and captured the city of Lashio—the center of the junta's northeastern regional command. This forced the junta forces to retreat and more than half of the country fell under rebel control. The rebels gained strength in areas such as Mandalay, Sagaing, and Rakhine. But the situation changed from late 2024 to 2025. The junta forces returned and are recovering territory one after another. Notable among these are the capture of Kyaw Myint, Hsipaw, and Naungkhyo.
Recent developments: The junta's recovery wave
In early 2025, a devastating earthquake struck Myanmar, with a magnitude of 7.7, causing widespread destruction in the central region. The junta government declared a ceasefire from 2 April to 22 April, but continued air strikes on rebel areas. In the meantime, the rebels retreated from Lashio, a result of Chinese pressure. In mid-April, the MNDAA, under the supervision of Chinese peacekeeping forces, relinquished Lashio.
Intensification increased in October. The TNLA-held town of Kyakme—located on the main China-Myanmar trade route—was recaptured by junta forces in a three-week intense offensive. Towns such as Hsipaw and Naungkhyo were also recaptured. On 29 October, the TNLA signed a Chinese-brokered ceasefire with the junta, promising to withdraw troops from Mogao (a ruby mining center) and Momeik. The ceasefire took effect on 30 October. The junta now controls most of the strategic routes into Shan State, which has strengthened their position.
The junta's strategic plan has worked behind this recovery. They have broken the rebel defenses through extensive use of drones and airstrikes. For example, Chinese-made drones destroyed rebel bases in the Kiyokme operation. As a result, the rebels have been forced to retreat, although they are strong in ground combat.
Why are the rebels retreating? Chinese pressure and other factors
The biggest reason behind the rebels' retreat is Chinese intervention. China is Myanmar's largest trading partner and a major backer of the junta. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China has billions of dollars in investment—oil and gas pipelines, mineral resources, and infrastructure projects. The rebels' advances have caused unrest on China's borders, which Beijing cannot tolerate.
At the end of 2024, China arrested the leader of the MNDAA and demanded its withdrawal from Lashio. They closed the border and cut off the internet, fuel and electricity supplies. The same pressure is on the TNLA: they accepted a ceasefire in Chinese-brokered talks in Kunming. China offered to form a joint security company with the junta, which would increase their influence. Analysts say China does not want the junta to fall because it would create anarchy, which would put their investments at risk.
Other reasons are:
Military development of the junta:In 2025, the junta became proficient in drone warfare. Chinese-made drones and airstrikes killed rebel soldiers and prevented them from holding their positions. The rebels still used cheap drones, but the junta's air superiority pushed them back.
Internal weaknesses:The rebel groups are not mediated and lack coordination. Tensions have risen within the Three Brotherhood Alliance, especially between the MNDAA and the TNLA. In addition, the rebels have been weakened after the earthquake because they are dependent on public assistance.
Strategy for the upcoming elections:The junta has announced elections for 28 December 2025, which critics say are a "cover-up". Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD will not take part in the elections, but China supports them in the name of stability. The rebels had previously refused to consolidate their positions, but have backed down under pressure.
The impact of this change: People's suffering and regional instability
The junta’s resurgence has brought further misery to the people of Myanmar. Thousands have been displaced in Shan State, and hundreds have been killed in airstrikes. There has been economic damage in ruby mining centers like Mogao, which are a source of income for ethnic groups. China’s intervention has increased instability in Southeast Asia—refugee flows have increased along the borders with Thailand and India.
Internationally, the incident has highlighted ASEAN’s failure. The United States and the European Union have increased sanctions on the junta, but China’s support has strengthened them. The rebels are still strong—they control 42% of the territory—but the retreat has broken their morale.
Future prospects: stagnation or new progress?
Myanmar’s civil war is heading towards a stalemate by the end of 2025. The junta’s election cannot bring stability, as it is limited to only 161 townships. The rebels could regroup, especially in Kayah and Karen states. China’s role is key—if they ease the pressure, the rebels could return.
This situation teaches us that war is never simple. The people of Myanmar are caught in the web of ethnic rights, external interference, and economic interests. It is hoped that the international community and ASEAN will truly mediate in this crisis, so that peace can return. Otherwise, this cycle of one occupation after another will continue, and Myanmar's dream will remain elusive.
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